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Market, Market, on the Wall

[This post is for entertainment or educational purposes only and does not offer investment advice of any kind. Investments decisions should be made with careful consideration on an individual basis along with a professional.]

PUNDITS AND POLLSTERS will soon begin to argue passionately over their predictions for president in 2020. They usually make emotional cases and use tired, second-hand reasoning on either side–sounding much like sports bums at the beginning of a new season.

Everybody loves a fortune teller.

But despite the minor blips in the polls, the outrage du jour, and the talk of impeachment (and the expanding list of reasons for it), the best predictor of the election–assuming it’s held on schedule–will be the performance of the stock market over the next year.

If the market is down from current levels by this time next year, and the economy (as a down market usually predicts) is weaker than it is now, Trump is probably out by a good margin. However, if the market rises and the economy is stronger by next Fall, he has a chance to win another term. Though it seems the latest connection between the racial messaging and the mass murders is writing a new chapter for Trump and the Republicans, there’s always a new narrative or scandal to distract and deflect attention from one talking point to another.

Just watch the indexes.

The thinking is that while the president’s approval ratings have been as high as 45 percent, 5 to 10% of that approval comes from the economy and the stock market. Take that away and there just aren’t enough votes. Also, in order to keep the market and the economy going, Trump will have to concede to the Chinese and make a deal on trade. If he thinks he can outlast President XI Jinping, he’s probably wrong: China would only have to wait a little over a year and Trump would lose the election–presumably to someone less militant with tariffs. China would suffer, but would save face for not giving in and be better off economically. Trump on the other hand has painted himself into a corner: if he is stubborn, the global economy will shrink and cost him the election. If he relents, he will have to be able to spin the results of the deal,  because China is unlikely to make a sweetheart deal if they only have to wait one year or so to normalize trade with a new president.

Based on my look at the market and the global economy alone,  I predict the presidential version of The Apprentice will go off the air and leave millions of politicaholics in withdrawal.

Of course, the Greatest (Reality) Show in History, as I predicted it would become two years ago, may bring another couple seasons of 24-hour drama and some very real changes in the world before we know the outcome.

Based on my look at the market and the global economy alone,  I predict the presidential version of The Apprentice will go off the air and leave millions of politicaholics in withdrawal.Most of the news media and political cartoonists would have to reinvent themselves–at least until one of the Trump sons or Ivanka grabs hold of the family brand and grabs the MAGA torch.  Ouch! –That hurt to type.

 

WRH

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